ATTENTION: CONCERNED AMERICANS

Markets on Edge: Trump's "Liberation Day" Looms

Will April 2nd Tariffs Reshape the American Economy?

Editor's Note: As markets brace for Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements and crucial March jobs data, Wall Street finds itself at a potential inflection point. The combination of anticipated 25% tariffs on foreign-made vehicles and expected job growth of 135,000 could reshape market sentiment in the days ahead.

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As markets hover near yearly lows, investors brace for a week dominated by President Trump's anticipated tariff announcements and crucial labor market data. The S&P 500 closed last week down nearly 3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell almost 4%, reflecting growing concerns about trade policy and economic growth.

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The Tariff Countdown

President Trump is set to announce his "Liberation Day" tariff package on Wednesday, April 2. Following his recent 25% tariff implementation on foreign-made vehicles, Goldman Sachs analysts suggest markets may be underestimating the scope of new tariffs. Initial rates could potentially be double the 9% that market participants currently expect.

📅 THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Monday, March 31 - MNI Chicago PMI (Expected: 45.5)
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (Expected: -5)
Tuesday, April 1 - Job Openings (Expected: 7.69 million)
- ISM Manufacturing Index (Expected: 49.8)
- S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Final)
Wednesday, April 2 - ADP Private Payrolls (Expected: +119,000)
- Factory Orders (Expected: +0.4%)
- Trump's "Liberation Day" Tariff Announcement
Thursday, April 3 - Initial Jobless Claims
- ISM Services Index (Expected: 53.1)
- S&P Global US Services PMI (Final)
Friday, April 4 - Nonfarm Payrolls (Expected: +135,000)
- Unemployment Rate (Expected: 4.1%)
- Average Hourly Earnings (Expected: +0.3%)
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Labor Market Under Scrutiny

Friday's March jobs report is expected to show 135,000 new jobs, down from February's 151,000. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.1%. This report comes at a critical time as economists evaluate whether the economy is merely cooling from above-trend growth or facing more significant challenges.

Corporate Caution Signs

More companies than usual are falling short of analyst expectations with their earnings guidance. Of 107 S&P 500 companies issuing guidance for the first quarter, 68 have provided negative outlooks—exceeding both five-year and ten-year averages. This trend suggests Wall Street may have entered 2025 with overly optimistic expectations.

Economic Indicators to Watch

The week features several key economic releases, including job openings data, manufacturing indices, and private payroll numbers. Consumer spending data has already shown signs of weakness, while inflation readings remain stubbornly high, fueling stagflation concerns.

What This Could Mean for Investors

With markets at a potential inflection point, this week's developments could signal whether current pessimism is justified. The combination of trade policy shifts and labor market data may create opportunities for those positioned to navigate increased market volatility.

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A Force More Critical Than Tariffs?

Stock investors are scared. 

And volatility is soaring. 

Most people are obsessed with Trump's on-again, off-again tariffs. 

Yes, the economic uncertainly is playing havoc with the stock market. 

But there's a bigger and more important force you need to know about. 

It's a market cycle that helps us figure out what is most likely to happen for the rest of 2025, and in 2026 too. 

This market cycle is what allowed me to accurately call the bear markets of 2018... and 2022... and the roaring bull markets in both 2023 and 2024. 

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