Growing numbers of respected national security professionals, policy academics, and political scientists are sounding the alarm about the escalating risks of constitutional crisis and societal turmoil surrounding the 2024 presidential election.
A recent "winner-takes-all" war game simulation conducted by the Transition Integrity Project - a bipartisan group comprised of former officials from both Republican and Democratic administrations - concluded that a contested or narrow election result could easily catalyze circumstances reminiscent of the 1860s fracturing of the nation.
"We've gotten to a point where we can't assume there will be a peaceful transfer of power absent systemic reforms," said Rosa Brooks, a Georgetown law professor involved in the simulations. "We should consider this the new normal, not a once-in-a-lifetime stress test."
Such dire assessments align with recent public polling showing trust in the integrity of U.S. elections hovering near generational lows. A September NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey found only 57% of Americans have significant confidence that the 2024 presidential election will be conducted fairly and accurately.
The warnings also come amidst intensifying financial strains on American households, which many economists fear could exacerbate social instability. Persistently high inflation rates have forced a growing number of families to turn to food banks and fall behind on rent and utility payments.
Some Wall Street forecasters now see an over 60% probability of the U.S. economy lapsing into recession within the next 12 months - a downturn that could potentially wipe out trillions from retirement accounts and household wealth.
"When you combine the eroding trust in democratic processes with the very real economic misery being felt by tens of millions of Americans, it sets the stage for a potential conflagration that manifests in incalculable ways," said Rachel Kleinfeld, an expert on civil conflicts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
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While the array of scenarios envisioned by these esteemed voices remain horrific possibilities rather than foregone conclusions, there's no denying the escalating uncertainty and volatility of the current moment is spurring intense efforts to game out worst-case scenarios.
Among those are a tight-knit cadre of maverick investors and former government insiders who believe they've crafted a roadmap not only to survive - but potentially thrive amidst historic upheaval. Their predictive analysis and preparedness playbook may prove indispensable for any American seeking to insulate themselves from 2024's risks.
In 2016, even though surveys were giving Hillary Clinton more than 99% chance of winning right up until election night…
Former advisor to the CIA, the Pentagon and the White House Jim Rickards predicted Trump’s win.
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And it could have huge implications for the financial markets.
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While regular investors watch the public markets, something alarming is happening behind the scenes. Wall Street's biggest players are using private trading venues - called dark pools - to move money at record levels.
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