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Gold Rallies Past $2,940 as Trump's Tariffs Take Effect

Safe-haven buying surges amid trade war escalation and cooling inflation

Editor's Note:

As gold prices hit record highs above $2,940, a peculiar disconnect between gold prices and mining stocks presents a unique market opportunity.

Our analysis reveals a critical market anomaly: while physical gold trades at all-time highs, gold mining equities are still priced as if gold were at $1,800 per ounce. With Trump's new steel and aluminum tariffs triggering broader market uncertainty, and Goldman Sachs raising their year-end gold forecast to $3,100, this valuation gap may not persist much longer.

For investors seeking to understand this unprecedented opportunity in the mining sector, our trusted partner has prepared a timely analysis that warrants immediate review.

Gold surged higher yesterday, with April gold futures closing up $20.60 (0.70%) at $2,943.40, as President Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum took effect. The precious metal's advance came despite February's Consumer Price Index showing inflation rising less than expected, highlighting gold's growing safe-haven appeal amid escalating trade tensions.

Latest Market Data (March 12 Close):
Gold: $2,943.40 (up $20.60)
Silver: $33.68 (up $0.538)

Market Disconnect Creates Opportunity

"You have this absolutely bizarre disconnect between the gold price, which is at a record high $2,940 an ounce, and has just been on wheels for the last year, and the gold equities which are still trading as if gold was $1,800 an ounce," said Ross Norman, CEO of Metals Daily. "The buying appears to be highly concentrated, and the lack of visible telltales suggests that it's being driven by a single, powerful entity whose identity remains a mystery, but their influence on the market is undeniable."

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is up 18.8% year-to-date, while gold itself has risen 11.1%. Goldman Sachs analysts have raised their year-end gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce, up from their prior projection of $2,890.

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Trade War Intensifies

Wednesday's implementation of 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports triggered immediate responses from trading partners. The administration has announced plans for "true reciprocal tariffs" to take effect April 2nd.

"It doesn't even matter what it is. If they charge us 25% or 20% to 10% or 2% or 200%, then that's what we're charging them," Trump stated.

Inflation Data and Market Response

The Consumer Price Index for February came in at 2.8% year-on-year, below expectations of 2.9% and January's 3.0% rise. The core measure, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% after January's 0.5% advance. The U.S. dollar index surrendered most of its overnight gains following the CPI report.

Technical Outlook

Gold futures bulls maintain a solid technical advantage. The next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,974.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $2,844.10. First resistance is seen at $2,950.00 and then at the contract high of $2,974.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note currently sits around 4.3%, while Nymex crude oil futures prices are trading around $67.75 a barrel.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing in gold and mining stocks carries risk, including possible loss of principal. The mentioned companies and market predictions are for illustrative purposes and do not constitute investment recommendations.
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