The Scope: Nearly 200 Countries Face Tariff Letters
Trump's weekend announcement: He plans to send tariff notification letters before July 9, marking "the end of the trade deal" for countries without agreements.
The reality check: The "90 deals in 90 days" goal has failed dramatically. Only China and the UK have finalized agreements.
What's at stake: Nearly 200 countries face tariffs jumping from 10% back to 11-50% without extensions.
The April Precedent: What Markets Already Experienced
Remember "Liberation Day"? When Trump first announced these tariffs in April, markets experienced days of extreme volatility.
The reversal: Economic turmoil was so severe that Trump announced a 90-day pause just one week later.
The lesson: Markets can react violently and quickly to tariff announcements of this magnitude.
Sector Impact: From Steel to Technology
International ETFs at risk: Japan, Mexico, Canada, and EU funds could face immediate pressure as deals remain incomplete.
Tech sector vulnerability: Previously rallied on tariff relief—could see reverse volatility if negotiations fail.
Steel & aluminum winners: Already face 50% tariffs, have shown extreme sensitivity to trade policy changes.
The Extension Question: Political Chess Game
The confusion: White House calls deadlines "not critical" while Trump says he doesn't expect extensions.
Trump's preference: "Rather just send them a letter" detailing tariff rates than continue negotiations.
The reality: Executive order remains legally binding unless formally updated before July 9.